Hubbert Webquest Home

Hubbert Curve Webquest

Introduction

The Hubbert Curve was developed in 1956 by geophysicist Marion King Hubbert. The curve follows a bell-shaped probability function that is a symmetrical exponential curve. An exponential curve has three phases: lag, log, and plateau. Exponential curves have widespread applicability. For example, they can be used to measure organismal growth rates, as well as saturation of hemoglobin with respect to oxygen.

Unlike the exponential curve, the Hubbert curve has a parallel decreasing function that involves a logistic decline followed by an asymptotic fall to zero.

Hubbert used the curve to explain the future of petroleum supplies. His curve included an increase in supply, a peak, and a decline. The fundamental basis for his theory was that petroleum supplies are finite. Therefore, the amount available in the ground will be ever shrinking - leading to a boom / bust cycle. An important component of Hubbert's theory is that it can be applied at the local, regional, national, or global levels.

The curve, as Hubbert first described it, can be depicted as:

When he originally presented his paper in 1956, Hubbert predicted that the production of petroleum would peak in the United States in the late 1960s, and worldwide about 2005. He even predicted that annual production would top out at 12 gigabarrels.

Since Hubbert's prediction has such profound ramifications to so many facets of our societal well-being, it has been subject to extensive review and revision.

This curve shows production in Norway. Note the good fit of the data points with Hubbert.

This graph shows production of oil in the United States. Note the peak was reached in approximately 1970, though the decline has taken longer than predicted by the Hubbert curve.

This curve shows daily production in non-OPEC nations. Notice that each nation has a peak that was reached sometime between 1970 and 2004.

Task

The teams assigned to this webquest are to review the websites listed below. Students in those teams are to answer the following questions:

What evidence supports the Hubbert peak theory?
Does everybody agree with that evidence? If not, explain.
If petroleum production does peak, are experts in agreement as to its date?
If petroleum production does peak, what would be the adverse impact to the US, and globally? Does it mean that we will run out of oil immediately?
How prepared is the U.S. for a peak in production? Other countries?
How well educated are people regarding peak oil?

Process

Student teams assigned to this topic will conduct a webquest using the following websites:

Of course, you may work outside of class as a team to further research the topic, generate a synthesis, and formulate a presentation.

On 15 October, student teams assigned this topic will each give a 20 minute Powerpoint-based presentation in which they will answer the questions.

Evaluation

Students will be evaluated using the following rubric. The grade will reflect both an individual and a team performance.

Team-based items

Item	5	3	1
Introduction	First one-two minutes clearly understandable, audience led into the objectives of the talk	First one-two minutes mostly understandable, audience should be partly prepared for objectives of the talk	First one-two minutes generally not understanable, audience not really prepared for objectives of the talk
Objectives	Clearly outlined	Presented in a general way, but one or more details confusing	Not clearly indicated
Number of bullet points addressed	4-5	3	1-2
Bullet 1	Discussion provided substantial insight into online resources, accurate presentation of information in articles, clear synthesis that goes well beyond rehashing posted information.	Discussion provided acceptable insight into online resources, presentation of information in articles generally accurate, some synthesis beyond rehashing posted information	Discussion provided superficial insight into online resources, evident inaccuracies in way that presentation of information in articles was presented, little synthesis beyond rehashing posted information
Bullet 2	See above	See above	See above
Bullet 3	See above	See above	See above
Bullet 4	See above	See above	See above
Citations	Consistently and accurately provided	Mostly provided, or some inaccuracies	Generally not provided, or grossly inaccurate
Powerpoint text	Clearly legible	Mostly legible	Poorly legible
Images	All clear and appropriate	A few unclear or not appropriate	Many unclear or not appropriate
Integration of Powerpoint between speakers	Well integrated	Partly integrated	Not integrated
Conclusion	Clearly executed, excellent summary of main points and synthesis	Generally well executed with acceptable summary of main points and synthesis	None or poorly executed, with unclear summary and / or no real synthesis
Length	18-21 minutes	16-18 minutes	<16, >21 minutes

Individual-based items:

Item	5	3	1
Level of contribution to overall team effort	Clearly an integral part of overall effort	Secondary level of contribution to overall effort	Minor level of contribution to overall effort
Level of knowledge about topic	Clearly excellent grasp	Generally good grasp, some minor uncertainty	Clear level of uncertainty about topic
Attitude	Upbeat, confident professional demeanor	Some unprofessional comments / mannerisms at time or minor nervousness	Significant unprofessional demeanor or evident nervousness
Audibility	Excellent	Good	Poor
Pacing	Excellent	Slightly too fast or too slow	Significantly too fast or too slow
Eye contact with audience	Excellent	Good	None
Diction	Excellent	Some sluring or mispronunciation of a few words	Significant sluring or mispronunciations throughout presentation

Return to Homepage for BIO/EES 105

This page posted and maintained by Kenneth M. Klemow, Ph.D., Biology Department, Wilkes University, Wilkes-Barre, PA 18766. (570) 408-4758, kklemow@wilkes.edu.